I'm thinking that the fork has spread and overridden the T/O bearing carrier, but for the life of me I can't see the fork to determine what's going on.

What's the easiest way in to the clutch, R&R the PTO belt and pulley assy. or R&R the mower deck and go in from the bottom? Both look either labor intensive or heavy! I'm one for the KISS theory.
Any other diagnosis?

Thanks!!